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Predicting The Markets

>> Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Prediction couples with uncertainty.

Forecasting forward into the unknown future is subject to so much uncertainty. A lot will depend on the assumptions and a slight error will give enormously difference outcomes.

In addition, prediction is mostly based on historical information. Accuracy and precision of this information is just as critical. The measurement also needs to be timely.

As we all know garbage in garbage out.

So I wonder all those churning out numerous reports on the market outlook, how accurate have they been? Are they significantly better than pure random chance, and are they able to predict the coming of an uncertain event like the sub prime crisis or the euro debt? If not, why are people continuing to pursue after these crystal ball gazers.




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